Update from November 09, 2023:
During a Q&A session at OpenAI’s developer conference, Altman reiterated that GPT-5 is not yet concrete. OpenAI still has “a lot” of things to figure out before it can train a model it calls GPT-5, Altman said.
There is no guarantee that it will work, and OpenAI still needs to solve difficult scientific problems and needs more computing power, he said.
In general, Altman expects a potential GPT-5 to solve even more tasks. GPT-3 was basically only good at writing text, GPT-3.5 is useful in five to eight categories, and GPT-4 works reliably in dozens of categories, Altman said. He estimates that GPT-5 will work for “most things you might want to build.”
Altman didn’t comment directly on the OpenAI hardware rumors, but he didn’t rule out developing such hardware.
Original article from 08 November, 2023:
OpenAI’s Altman says today’s AI will be “quaint” by 2024, in line with first GPT-5 rumor
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman is already teasing the next round of AI innovation. And we got our first GPT-5 rumor for 2024.
OpenAI just announced a bunch of new features at its developer conference: GPT-4 Turbo, huge price cuts and new features for developers, custom ChatGPTs, and many more announcements.
At the conference, OpenAI emphasized its claim to leadership in generative AI and made it clear that Google and others will have to work hard to match the success of OpenAI’s ChatGPT and API services, which have achieved enormous market penetration with virtually no competition.
And OpenAI CEO Sam Altman hinted at the next big round of innovation as he said goodbye (45:14), with an eye toward a reunion at next year’s conference: “What we launch today is going to look very quaint relative to what we’re busy creating for you now.”
Altman is a man of big words. Often there is something to them, but not everything works. For example, the ChatGPT plugins, which were launched with great potential, have yet to become a success story outside of OpenAI’s own tools like DALL-E 3. But custom ChatGPTs are basically the evolution of them.
ChatGPT browsing also has its weaknesses, including a rocky launch, and OpenAI has not yet been able to take market share from Google. To be fair, they haven’t said that’s their goal, but a lot of what they’re building is a threat to Google because it could significantly change the digital ecosystem.
In any case, Altman’s send-off to the developers in the room was a challenge to all other AI companies, especially Google.
First rumors about GPT-5
Altman’s statement fits in with a recent rumor from Brian Roemmele on Twitter.com, who correctly leaked the ChatGPTs including the marketplace ahead of the OpenAI developer conference.
According to Roemmele, GPT-5 is the previously leaked multimodal AI model codenamed “Gobi”. It is scheduled for release in early 2024 and is currently being trained on a massive dataset, Roemmele claims. In addition to text and images, it will also support video.
The Information also reported on Gobi, which is said to be multimodal from the start and could become GPT-5. In early March 2023, shortly before the unveiling of GPT-4, Microsoft Germany CTO Andreas Braun also spoke of multimodal AI models from OpenAI that can generate video.
Roemmele goes on to claim that GPT-5 can correct itself and has “a small degree of self-awareness”. He cites “some folks I know very well” who have supposedly seen demos as his source. Government agencies are currently testing the model, Roemmle claims, which would fit in with Biden’s new regulatory plans.
In late September, Roemmele claimed to have access to Google’s Gemini, which he said is comparable to GPT-4 but more up-to-date. If the GPT-5 rumors are true, Google may have to compete with Gemini against a more advanced GPT-5.
OpenAI has not commented on GPT-5 recently. In June 2023, Altman said that GPT-5 was a long way from being ready for training, and that there was still a lot of work to be done. He added that OpenAI was working on new ideas, but that they were not yet ready to begin work on GPT-5.
Microsoft founder Bill Gates does not expect GPT-5 to offer a major performance improvement over GPT-4.